The Daily Slate — May 5 Full Slate

Last Updated · May 5 · 5:01 PM EDT · PM Refresh

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🧪 How We Grade — Sweet Spot × Dimers › 📊 Alignment — Sweet Spot Tier Logic › 📅 Slate Headlines + Flags › 🎮 All 14 Game Write-Ups › ⚡ Full K’s Tier Board › 🏆 Top 25 HR Board › 🎯 Top 50 H+R+RBI O 0.5 Board › 🎰 10 Lower Alt K’s & H+R+RBI Combos › 💣 10 Two-Leg HR Parlays › ✅ Full Conviction Board › 📋 Daily Skip List ›

Every play on this site goes through a two-input filter. Sweet Spot answers “is this a great HR environment for this hitter, right now?” — it doesn't care about price. Dimers answers “what does the market think the chance is?” — it doesn't care about quality. The app uses one to validate the other. Sweet Spot is the gate; Dimers is the ranker.

The two inputs do different jobs

🎯 Sweet Spot QUALITY

How good the HR environment is for this hitter, built from data that doesn't have a public line:

Pitcher Vuln 0–100 (70+ TARGET, 50–69 STRONG, 32–49 MODERATE, <32 TOUGH)
Batter ZONE 1–7 ⚡ (premium = 5+)
ELITE ISO tier (≥ .250)
Park factor + wind, platoon edge, hot/cold streak
Tier 3 confirmers: Barrel%, xwOBA, Exit Velo, Adj HR Factor

Output: a tier (0/1/2/3) + ZONE rating + pass/fail on must-haves.

💰 Dimers PRICE

The market's implied probability that a counting stat happens at all, blended from books and projections:

1+H% — chance of a hit
RBI% — chance of an RBI
HR% — chance of a HR
Pitcher props — Ks, Outs, ER, Hits allowed

Output: a single % per prop. Tells you how the books see it; tells you nothing about why.

The formula — a 4-step gate

Run in order. The first three steps are quality. Dimers only enters at step four.

SWEET SPOT MUST-HAVES GATE

ZONE ≥ 3⚡ AND ELITE ISO ≥ .250 AND Pitcher Vuln ≥ 50

All three required for Tier 0 / Tier 1. Fail any one → drop to Tier 2/3 or skip pile, regardless of how juicy the Dimers number is.

TIER 2 SUPPORT PROMOTE

Any one of: HOT BAT (HR last 7d) · Score ≥ 55 · Park ≥ 1.05 + wind out · Platoon edge + ISO ≥ .180

A near-miss on the gate can climb back if the surrounding context is strong enough.

TIER 3 CONFIRMERS STACK

Barrel% ≥ 8% · xwOBA ≥ .330 · Exit Velo ≥ 90 · Adj HR Factor ≥ +10% · CRUSHER badge

Stack these on top of a passing gate to convert a Tier 1 play into a CONVICTION pick.

DIMERS PRICE CHECK RANK

Only after the gate passes. Use Dimers HR% / 1+H% / RBI% to rank survivors, not to qualify them.

Sweet Spot decides who plays. Dimers decides who plays first.

When the two inputs disagree

This is the most important part. The app always sides with Sweet Spot when they conflict.

Sweet Spot	Dimers %	Verdict	Where it lands
Tier 0 / 1 (gate passed)	High	CONVICTION	HR Board top, Conviction Board, Parlay anchor
Tier 0 / 1 (gate passed)	Low	VALUE / LIVE	HR Board mid-tier, live-bet candidate
Gate failed	High	TRAP	Skip List — the public is mispriced
Gate failed	Low	IGNORE	Doesn't make any board

Today's slate — both sides of the disagreement

✅ Both inputs agree — CONVICTION

Aaron Judge (NYY @ BAL)

ZONE ⚡7 · ISO .351 · vs Gibson Vuln 64 · Park 1.13 → gate passes. Dimers HR% = 23.95% confirms. Tier 0 stack.

⛔ Inputs disagree — TRAP

Nick Kurtz (CLE @ ATH)

Dimers HR% = 25.09% (juicy). But pitcher Civale Vuln = 11 (TOUGH) → gate fails. Routes to Skip pile despite the elite Dimers number.

How it shows up across the boards

Section	How the formula is applied
HR Board	Sorted by Sweet Spot tier first (0 → 3); Dimers HR% is the tiebreaker within each tier.
K Board / OO5 Board	Sweet Spot is HR-only — doesn't apply here. Dimers props ranked, filtered by pitcher K9 / outs depth from CSV.
Combos	Must clear the Sweet Spot gate; Dimers % is shown as the market check.
Parlays	HR parlay rule = 2 legs / 2 separate games and anchor must be Tier 0 (ZONE 5+ + ELITE ISO + TARGET-tier pitcher). Dimers shown for transparency only.
Conviction	Both inputs must agree — Sweet Spot Tier 0/1 and Dimers in the upper band for that prop type.
Skip / Trap	Where Dimers looks great but the Sweet Spot gate fails (the Kurtz pattern).

TL;DR

Sweet Spot is the gate. Dimers is the ranker.

Pass the gate first → then sort by Dimers % within each tier → then publish to the right board.

When the two disagree and Dimers is hot but Sweet Spot is cold, it goes to the Skip pile, not the play pile.

play = passes_gate(Sweet Spot) × rank_by(Dimers %)

Signal	Tier Weight
TIER 1 MUST-HAVES (all 3): ZONE ≥ 3 + ELITE ISO (≥.250) + pitcher Vuln ≥ 50 (or HITTABLE)	TIER 0
TIER 2 STRONG SUPPORT: HOT BAT (HR last 7d) + STRONG matchup grade (Score ≥ 55) + Park ≥ 1.05 with wind out + Platoon advantage with ISO ≥ .180	TIER 1
TIER 3 CONFIRMING: Barrel% ≥ 8%, xwOBA ≥ .330, Exit Velo ≥ 90, Adj HR Factor ≥ +10%, CRUSHER badge	CONFIRMATION
Pitcher Vuln 70+ = TARGET (red); 50–69 = STRONG (orange); 32–49 = MODERATE; <32 = TOUGH (skip)	VULN SCALE
BAD batter grade = HR suppressor regardless of HR% (O 0.5 still valid)	SUPPRESSOR
No ZONE badge OR ISO < .180 = no matchup. Skip the pick.	SKIP

Today's Tier 0 bats (all 3 must-haves ✅): Aaron Judge (⚡8 + ISO .364 + Baz Vuln 54 + Park 1.13 + 24.55% MLBH HR%) and Ben Rice (⚡8 + ISO .416 + Baz Vuln 54 + Park 1.13). Slate is THIN on T0 — Judge/Rice are the only true T0 anchors. Schwarber/Harper/Yordan/Murakami are HR TRAPS (ELITE ISO + ⚡6+ but Vuln < 50 fails Sweet Spot floor).

Top Sweet Spot HR Vuln pitchers: Nola 56 (PHI, ERA 6.03), Baz 54 (BAL, vs NYY juggernaut), Leahy 50 (STL, ERA 5.52). Only 3 pitchers clear the Tier-0-Vuln gate today — slate is pitcher-heavy.

📅 Slate Headlines — Day 39 · Tuesday May 5

Tiering follows Sweet Spot HR methodology: Tier 1 must-haves — ZONE ≥ 3 (⚡5+ premium), ELITE ISO (≥.250), pitcher Vuln ≥ 50.

Flag	Detail	Source
🔥 Top Vuln (Sweet Spot)	Lorenzen COL 80 STRONG — ERA 6.09 / WHIP 1.76 / 6.80 H proj · slate-ceiling + Coors 1.38 = NYM stack T2 PWR blowup	Sweet Spot Slate
🏆 #1 HR Score	Jordan Walker STL — Score 72 + HOT 🔥 + .405 xwOBA + Sproat V56 = TIER 0 ✅ — today's ONLY true T0	HR Board
🏆 #1 Dimers HR%	🆕 Kyle Schwarber PHI 22.13% (vs Severino V36 — T1 LEAN, fails Vuln 50 gate). Judge #2 22.02%, Adell #3 20.43% (LAA Fedde V14 trap)	MLBH2 PM
🆕 Pitcher H Projected	Lorenzen 6.80 🏆🔴 slate-high (Coors blowup confirmed) \| Ohtani 3.69 ✅ slate-low (LAD lockdown) \| Severino 6.35 + Bassitt 6.12 + Pallante 6.15 = HR-friendly setups	MLBP2 PM
🏆 #1 K Projection	Jacob deGrom TEX 5.94 Ks 🏆 — light K slate (no pitcher >5.94) · K9 11.6 · ERA 2.01 · WHIP 0.96	MLBP
🏆 Most Outs	Valdez DET 18.72 🏆 · Webb SF 17.88 · Sanchez PHI 17.50 · Alcantara MIA 17.71	MLBP
⚡ Longest Zone Streak	Vidal Bruján NYM ⚡21 🏆 vs Lorenzen (no Dimers HR% — O 0.5 only) · Judge/Murakami ⚡8 top legit zones	HR Board
🎯 Bilateral Risk Games	BAL @ MIA (Bassitt V50 + Alcantara V17) · CIN-CHC (Abbott V46) · CWS-LAA (Aldegheri V47) — all near-threshold	Slate
🚨 Worst ERA Today	Sproat MIL 6.75 · Lorenzen COL 6.09 · Abbott CIN 5.97 · Bassitt BAL 5.46 · Aldegheri LAA 5.40 · Buehler SD 5.40	Slate
🔥 Park Factors	Coors 1.38 🏆 (NYM @ COL) · TEX-NYY 1.13 · PHI 1.10 · PIT-ARI 1.07 · LAD-HOU 1.05 · SD-SF 0.71 ⒢ (worst)	Slate
✅ Confirmed Starters	All 14 games confirmed — no TBDs today. Lorenzen V80 unlocks NYM T2 PWR stack; Walker T0 = anchor; deGrom T0 K (bat-side cap).	Slate

⚠️ Lineup Flags — Confirm Before Betting

NYM @ COL (Coors 1.38) — Lorenzen V80 🏆🏆: ERA 6.09 / 6.80 H proj = blowup risk. NYM bats: Soto 20.16%, Alvarez 18.18%, Vientos 17.12%, Baty 14.67%, Melendez 14.69%, Bruján ⚡21. Methodology: V80 ≥ 50 = Tier 2 Power (no ELITE ISO so not T0/T1; NYM bats sized as T2). COL bats vs Peralta V40: Goodman ⚡8 ISO .272 — O 0.5 only (V40 < 50).
STL vs Sproat MIL (V56 STRONG) — Jordan Walker = slate's ONLY Tier 0: Score 72 + HOT + ⚡4 + ELITE .405 xwOBA + V56 ✅. Wetherholt T1 STRONG (Score 69 + .361 + V56). Gorman T1 STRONG (Score 66 + .296 + V56). STL stack is the slate's #1 correlated group.
TEX vs NYY (Park 1.13) — deGrom V28 = wall; caps NYY bats to T1 max (Judge ⚡8 .376 ISO + Rice ⚡7 .416 ISO). Elmer Rodríguez NYY V55 STRONG ✅ → Seager ⚡5 + .197 ISO = T1 borderline. Today's #1 K = deGrom 5.94 (O5+).
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) ⚡8 ISO .510 🏆🏆 vs Ohtani V19 — Best ISO on slate BUT Ohtani Vuln 19 = SKIP HR. O 0.5 only. Today's biggest ISO trap.
Matt Olson (ATL) ⚡7 ISO .364 vs Kirby V14 — Same logic: Vuln 14 = SKIP HR. O 0.5 only.
Junior Caminero (TB) ⚡6 ISO .234 vs Gausman V14 — Vuln 14 fails floor. SKIP HR. O 0.5 only.
Adell/Trout/Soler/Neto (LAA) vs Fedde V14 — Adell 20.43% Dimers (#3 PM) = trap alert. Fedde V14 disqualifies all LAA HR. O 0.5 only.
Schwarber/Harper (PHI) vs Severino V36 — V36 fails 50 floor = T1 LEAN only (not full T1). Schwarber jumped to #1 Dimers HR% 22.13% PM but methodology = T1 LEAN (V36 fails 50 gate). Sized smaller; no parlay anchor.
SD @ SF (Park 0.71 — slate's worst) — Webb 17.88 outs deepest start; all HR skip both teams. O 0.5 only. Webb K = T1 (SD park helps suppress).
ATL vs SEA (Kirby V14) — Olson ⚡7 .364 ISO = SKIP HR. Elder K = T2 LEAN only (4.80 proj). O 0.5 game.

🎮 Game-by-Game Write-Ups

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	Outs	H	Ks	VS
Peralta (NYM)	3.52	1.20	15.15	4.43	5.01	40 MOD
Lorenzen (COL) 🔥	6.09	1.76	14.94	6.80 🔴 🏆	3.70 ❌	80 STRONG 🏆

NYM vs Lorenzen (VS 80, Coors 1.38) — T2 PWR

Player	1+H%	HR%	RBI%	ISO	Grade	Zone
Juan Soto	62.22%	19.76%	36.25%	.178	HOT	⚡3
Francisco Alvarez	61.60%	18.08%	35.55%	.332 xwOBA	STRONG	⚡3
Mark Vientos	63.48%	16.87%	35.07%	.182	STRONG	⚡3
MJ Melendez	59.80%	14.69%	33.36%	.244	STRONG	—
Brett Baty	63.30%	14.67%	32.95%	—	STRONG	—
Vidal Bruján	—	—	—	—	MOD	⚡21 🏆

COL vs Peralta (VS 40, Coors 1.38) — O 0.5 only

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Hunter Goodman	56.16%	13.93%	67 HOT	.272	MOD	⚡8
Mickey Moniak	—	—	64 HOT	.354	MOD	⚡6
TJ Rumfield	—	—	— MOD	.152	MOD	⚡3

Angles: Lorenzen V80 = slate-ceiling + Coors 1.38 = NYM stack live. Lorenzen H proj 6.80 🔴 🏆 = slate-high (NYM stack confirmed) — highest projected hits allowed on entire slate confirms blowup thesis. V80 ≥ 50 clears methodology gate but NYM ISOs mostly sub-ELITE (.178/.182 miss) → Tier 2 Power play: sized smaller than T0/T1. Melendez .244 ISO is closest to ELITE floor. Best Dimers cluster: Soto 19.76%, Alvarez 18.08%, Vientos 16.87%. Bruján ⚡21 longest zone on slate — O 0.5 only (no Dimers HR%). COL side vs Peralta V40 — Goodman ⚡8 ISO .272 is the best read but V40 < 50 = O 0.5 only. Peralta H proj 4.43 (moderate). Lorenzen K NEVER (3.70 = sub-floor). Best play: NYM T2 PWR stack + individual O 0.5 for Goodman/Moniak.

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	Outs	H	Ks	VS
deGrom (TEX) 🎯	2.01	0.96	15.57	5.07	5.94 🏆	28 TOUGH
Elmer Rodríguez (NYY)	4.50	2.00	—	—	—	55 STRONG

NYY vs deGrom (VS 28, Park 1.13) — T1 (V28 cap)

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Aaron Judge	56.92%	22.02%	65 STRONG	.376 ELITE	STRONG	⚡8
Ben Rice	55.29%	16.95%	64 STRONG	.416 ELITE 🏆	STRONG	⚡7
Jazz Chisholm	54.95%	15.91%	— STRONG	—	STRONG	—
Trent Grisham	51.85%	15.21%	52 STRONG	—	STRONG	⚡3
Austin Wells	54.08%	14.83%	— STRONG	—	STRONG	—

TEX vs Elmer Rodríguez (VS 55, Park 1.13) — T1

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Corey Seager	55.39%	15.20%	62 COLD	.197	STRONG	⚡5
Jake Burger	54.18%	15.39%	55 MOD	.172	MOD	⚡5
Brandon Nimmo	—	—	48 MOD	—	MOD	⚡3
Joc Pederson	51.56%	14.26%	— MOD	—	MOD	—

Angles: deGrom O5+ = today's #1 K (5.94 / K9 11.6 / ERA 2.01) — T0 K play (caution: NYY bat side is strong; V28 = wall but deGrom K9 is elite enough to deliver). NYY bats: V28 fails Vuln 50 floor → T1 max. Judge ⚡8 ELITE .376 ISO = best two-factor convergence (zone + ISO); Rice ⚡7 ELITE .416 ISO close second. Both are T1 (V28 cap) — no parlay anchor today (Walker is T0). TEX vs Elmer Rodríguez V55 ✅: Seager T1 STRONG (⚡5 + V55 + Park 1.13 — ISO .197 misses ELITE but convergence carries). Burger/Nimmo O 0.5. K Play: deGrom O5+ mandatory.

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	Outs	H	Ks	VS
Sproat (MIL) 🔥	6.75	1.61	13.85	4.36	3.48 ❌	56 STRONG
Pallante (STL)	3.73	1.31	16.05	6.15 🔴	3.53 ❌	23 TOUGH

STL vs Sproat (VS 56, Park 0.96) — T0/T1 STRONG

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Jordan Walker ⭐	—	13.86%	72 HOT 🏆	.277 xwOBA .405	MOD	⚡4
JJ Wetherholt	—	—	69 STRONG	.194 xwOBA .361	STRONG	⚡4
Nolan Gorman	55.57%	13.86%	66 STRONG	.296	STRONG	⚡3
Nathan Church	—	—	64 MOD	—	MOD	⚡4
Iván Herrera	—	—	61 COLD	—	STRONG	⚡3
Alec Burleson	—	—	62 HOT	—	MOD	⚡2

MIL vs Pallante (VS 23, Park 0.96) — O 0.5 only

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Brice Turang	—	—	50 HOT	—	STRONG	⚡3
Jake Bauers	56.38%	13.67%	47 MOD	—	STRONG	⚡4
Sal Frelick	—	—	— MOD	—	MOD	⚡3
Gary Sánchez	—	—	— MOD	.268	MOD	—

Angles: Today's alpha game. Sproat V56 ✅ + ERA 6.75 = most vulnerable starter on slate. Walker TIER 0: Score 72 + HOT + ⚡4 + .405 xwOBA + V56 — passes all 3 Sweet Spot floors (Zone ≥ 3 ✅, ELITE ISO ✅, Vuln ≥ 50 ✅). Wetherholt T1 STRONG (Score 69 + .361 xwOBA + V56). Gorman T1 STRONG (.296 ISO + V56). STL parlay anchor: Walker HR (only T0 today → caps at 2× across all cards). MIL side vs Pallante V23 = SKIP HR (all); Pallante H proj 6.15 🔴 supports MIL bats grinding hits (O 0.5 live). Sproat K NEVER (3.48 = sub-floor). Pallante K NEVER (3.53). Pure HR + O 0.5 game on STL side.

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	Outs	H	Ks	VS
Severino (ATH)	4.46	1.43	16.30	6.35 🔴	4.46	36 STRONG
Sánchez (PHI)	2.90	1.51	17.94	5.30	5.58	32 STRONG

PHI vs Severino (VS 36, Park 1.10) — T1 LEAN

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Bryce Harper	57.94%	14.59%	65 HOT	.248 xwOBA .396	STRONG	⚡4
Kyle Schwarber	52.50%	22.13% 🏆 🆕	54 COLD	.322 ELITE	MOD	⚡5
Brandon Marsh	—	—	55 MOD	—	STRONG	⚡4
Adolis García	56.12%	14.75%	51 MOD	—	STRONG	⚡2

ATH vs Sánchez (VS 32, Park 1.10) — O 0.5 only

Player	1+H%	HR%	Proj%	ISO	Grade	Zone
Carlos Cortes	—	—	19.4%	.253	STRONG	⚡3
Tyler Soderstrom	—	—	19.4%	.205	STRONG	⚡2
Nick Kurtz	52.23%	15.77%	—	—	MOD	—

Angles: Severino V36 misses the 50 floor → PHI bats are T1 LEAN only. Severino H proj 6.35 🔴 = high hits allowed supports PHI bats hitting; Schwarber jumped to #1 Dimers HR% 22.13% PM but V36 fails Vuln 50 gate → tier stays T1 LEAN. Harper ⚡4 ELITE xwOBA .396 + HOT = best PHI read; Schwarber ELITE ISO .322 + ⚡5. Both lean at reduced size — not parlay anchors today. ATH vs Sánchez V32 = O 0.5 only (Cortes .253 ISO is best but V32 fails). Sánchez K = T1 STRONG (O5+ / proj 5.58 / 17.94 outs / K9 11.2) — best pure K outside deGrom. Severino K = T2 LEAN (O2.5 / proj 4.46).

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	Outs	H	Ks	VS
Fedde (CWS)	3.24	1.05	16.41	5.77	4.02 ❌	14 TOUGH
Aldegheri (LAA)	5.40	1.80	—	—	—	47 STRONG

CWS vs Aldegheri (VS 47, Park 0.92) — T1 LEAN

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Munetaka Murakami	52.28%	16.38%	65 MOD	.344 ELITE 🏆	MOD	⚡8
Colson Montgomery	51.90%	14.25%	65 HOT	.258 ELITE	MOD	⚡6
Miguel Vargas	—	—	61 HOT	—	MOD	⚡5
Drew Romo	—	—	— MOD	.643 ⚠️ flag	MOD	—

LAA vs Fedde (VS 14, Park 0.92) — SKIP HR all

Player	1+H%	HR%	ISO	Grade	Zone
Jo Adell ⚠️	58.21%	20.43% TRAP 🆕#3	—	MOD	—
Mike Trout	55.79%	17.59%	.282	MOD	—
Jorge Soler	56.10%	16.84%	.222	MOD	—
Zach Neto	59.21%	16.44%	—	MOD	—

Angles: Adell 20.02% Dimers = trap of the game — Fedde V14 disqualifies ALL LAA HR. O 0.5 only. Trout/Soler same. CWS side: Aldegheri V47 just misses 50 → Murakami T1 LEAN (⚡8 + ELITE .344 ISO = strongest multi-factor; cap to T1 LEAN). Montgomery ⚡6 ELITE .258 = T1 LEAN secondary. Romo .643 ISO = sample-size flag, ignore. Drew Romo ISO flag noted. Aldegheri K NEVER (proj not published — ERA 5.40 + V47 = HR target). Fedde K NEVER (proj 4.02). Best play: Murakami/Montgomery O 0.5 (62-65% 1+H range), Murakami HR at reduced stake T1 LEAN.

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	Outs	H	Ks	VS
Abbott (CIN)	5.97	1.67	15.57	5.53	4.68	46 STRONG
Taillon (CHC)	4.41	1.15	15.45	4.93	3.99 ❌	29 TOUGH

CHC vs Abbott (VS 46, Park 0.90) — T1 LEAN / top O 0.5

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Pete Crow-Armstrong	65.63% 🏆	17.56%	— STRONG	—	STRONG	—
Alex Bregman	64.59%	15.23%	— STRONG	—	STRONG	—
Seiya Suzuki	64.92%	17.89%	60 HOT	.247	MOD	⚡4
Michael Busch	64.22%	15.28%	— STRONG	—	STRONG	—
Ian Happ	62.64%	15.07%	57 COLD	.258 ELITE	MOD	⚡5
Moisés Ballesteros	—	—	60 MOD	.270	MOD	⚡5

CIN vs Taillon (VS 29, Park 0.90) — O 0.5 only

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
JJ Bleday	57.44%	15.03%	— MOD	.500 ⚠️ flag	MOD	—
Nathaniel Lowe	—	—	— MOD	.307	MOD	⚡4
Elly De La Cruz	60.42%	13.61%	48 MOD	—	BAD	⚡8

Angles: Abbott V46 misses 50 → CHC bats are T1 LEAN HR (sized smaller). BUT O 0.5 is top-of-slate: PCA 65.63%, Suzuki 64.92%, Busch 64.22%, Bregman 64.59%, Happ 62.64%, Ballesteros ~62% — all #1 O 0.5 group on slate. Happ ⚡5 ELITE .258 ISO = best HR LEAN candidate. Suzuki HOT + ⚡4. Abbott K = T2 LEAN (O2.5 / proj 4.68 / V46 HR risk). CIN vs Taillon V29 = SKIP HR; Bleday .500 ISO is sample-size flag. De La Cruz ⚡8 BAD grade = HR suppressor. Best play: CHC O 0.5 full stack (Wrigley + V46 = high hit-ceiling); HR leaned at reduced size.

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	Outs	H	Ks	VS
Chandler (PIT)	4.97	1.48	14.42	4.45	4.01 ❌	44 STRONG
E.Rodríguez (AZ)	3.03	1.41	15.49	5.69	4.39	28 TOUGH

ARI vs Chandler (VS 44, Park 1.07) — T1 LEAN

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Ketel Marte	63.50%	14.84%	56 MOD	.359 xwOBA	MOD	⚡5
Corbin Carroll	61.77%	14.81%	50 MOD	.245	MOD	⚡3
Ildemaro Vargas	—	—	50 BAD	.275	BAD	⚡4
Alek Thomas	—	—	— STRONG	—	STRONG	⚡2

PIT vs E.Rodríguez (VS 28, Park 1.07) — O 0.5 only

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Oneil Cruz	—	—	— MOD	.236	MOD	—
Bryan Reynolds	—	—	— MOD	.169	MOD	—
Henry Davis	—	—	— STRONG	—	STRONG	⚡2

Angles: Chandler V44 just misses 50 → ARI bats are T1 LEAN HR. Marte ⚡5 + .359 xwOBA + top O 0.5 (~63.5%) = best ARI read. Carroll ⚡3 .245 ISO = T1 lean second. Vargas BAD grade = HR suppressor (O 0.5 only). PIT vs E.Rodríguez V28 = SKIP HR; O 0.5 only. Park 1.07 mild boost. Chandler K NEVER (4.01 = sub-floor). E.Rodríguez K = T2 LEAN (O2.5 / 4.39). Best play: Marte/Carroll O 0.5 (top-5 slate 1+H%), ARI HR leans sized small (T1 LEAN).

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	Outs	H	Ks	VS
Buehler (SD)	5.40	1.56	15.18	5.45	4.02 ❌	43 STRONG
Webb (SF)	4.30	1.36	17.81	6.02 🔴	5.28	28 TOUGH

SF vs Buehler (VS 43, Park 0.71) — SKIP ALL HR

Player	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Casey Schmitt	—	52 HOT	.234	BAD	⚡4
Heliot Ramos	—	49 HOT	—	BAD	⚡3
Drew Gilbert	—	— STRONG	—	STRONG	⚡2

SD vs Webb (VS 28, Park 0.71) — SKIP ALL HR

Player	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Luis Campusano	—	— MOD	.320	MOD	—
Ty France	—	— MOD	.245	MOD	—
Gavin Sheets	—	— MOD	.226	MOD	—

Angles: Park 0.71 = slate's worst. Per Sweet Spot Tier 3 rule, ALL HR plays both teams skip. O 0.5 stack game only. Webb K = T1 STRONG (O5+ / 5.28 Ks / 17.81 outs / K9 7.8 / ERA 4.30 — Park 0.71 helps suppress HR = K stay-in). Webb H proj 6.02 🔴 = elevated, but park suppresses HRs. Buehler K NEVER (4.02 = sub-floor). Best play: Webb O5+ Ks + O 0.5 stacks on both sides (Schmitt/Ramos SF; Campusano/France SD). SD-SF skip all HR props.

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	Outs	H	Ks	VS
Bradley (MIN)	2.85	1.22	15.05	5.29	4.37	20 TOUGH
Cavalli (WSH)	3.82	1.66	13.26	4.45	3.40 ❌	27 TOUGH

MIN vs Cavalli (VS 27, Park 0.99) — O 0.5 stack

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Byron Buxton	62.68%	19.40%	51 HOT	.276	BAD	⚡8
Royce Lewis	63.54%	15.25%	— MOD	—	MOD	—
Kody Clemens	61.18%	14.77%	— MOD	—	MOD	—
Matt Wallner	60.11%	17.30%	— STRONG	—	STRONG	⚡3

WSH vs Bradley (VS 20, Park 0.99) — O 0.5 only

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
James Wood	—	—	49 MOD	.276 xwOBA .416	MOD	⚡6
CJ Abrams	—	—	— MOD	.237	MOD	—

Angles: Both Vuln fail 50 → no HR plays. O 0.5 game. MIN vs Cavalli V27: Buxton 62.68%, Lewis 63.54%, Clemens 61.18% — top-5 O 0.5 group on slate. Buxton ⚡8 HOT + BAD grade = HR suppressor (O 0.5 only despite zone). Cavalli K NEVER (3.40 = sub-floor). Bradley K = T2 LEAN (O2.5 / 4.37 / K9 9.7 strong but V20 = no run support). WSH vs Bradley V20 = SKIP HR; Wood ⚡6 xwOBA .416 is best WSH O 0.5 read. Best play: MIN O 0.5 full stack (Buxton + Lewis + Clemens = ~62-64%).

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	Outs	H	Ks	VS
Ohtani (LAD)	0.60	0.87	14.67	3.69 ✅	5.68	19 TOUGH
Lambert (HOU)	3.52	1.24	—	—	—	25 TOUGH

HOU vs Ohtani (VS 19, Park 1.05) — SKIP HR all

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Yordan Alvarez ⚠️	55.65%	14.77%	61 MOD	.510 ELITE 🏆🏆 TRAP	STRONG	⚡8
Kyle Tucker	57.22%	15.15%	— MOD	—	MOD	—
Teoscar Hernandez	58.18%	14.83%	— MOD	—	MOD	—

LAD vs Lambert (VS 25, Park 1.05) — O 0.5 only

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Max Muncy	51.46%	14.58%	51 MOD	.283 xwOBA .421	MOD	⚡6
Dalton Rushing	—	—	— MOD	.460 ⚠️ flag	MOD	—
Kyle Tucker	—	—	— MOD	—	MOD	—

Angles: Yordan Alvarez = today's #1 ISO trap. ⚡8 + .510 ISO (slate best) BUT Ohtani Vuln 19 = SKIP HR per Sweet Spot (Vuln < 50 fails floor). Ohtani H proj 3.69 ✅ = slate-low (LAD shutdown ace) — lowest projected hits allowed on entire slate. Ohtani ERA 0.60 + WHIP 0.87 = elite suppressor. O 0.5 only for all HOU bats. LAD vs Lambert V25 = same → O 0.5 only. Muncy ⚡6 .421 xwOBA is best LAD O 0.5 read; Rushing .460 ISO = sample-size flag. Ohtani K = T1 STRONG (O5+ / 5.68 Ks / K9 10.2 / ERA 0.60 / WHIP 0.87 — cleanest K profile on slate outside deGrom). Lambert K NEVER (not enough data). Best play: Ohtani O5+ Ks (T1 mandatory).

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	Outs	H	Ks	VS
Gausman (TOR)	3.10	0.96	16.60	5.30	5.53	14 TOUGH
Rasmussen (TB)	2.64	0.85	14.17	4.29	4.31	14 TOUGH

TB vs Gausman (VS 14, Park 0.96) — SKIP HR all

Player	1+H%	HR%	ISO	Grade	Zone
Junior Caminero ⚠️	57.75%	17.86% TRAP	.234	MOD	⚡6
Jonathan Aranda	—	—	.204	MOD	—
Jake Fraley	—	—	.179	MOD	—

TOR vs Rasmussen (VS 14, Park 0.96) — SKIP HR all

Player	1+H%	HR%	ISO	Grade	Zone
Vladimir Guerrero	58.14%	14.80%	—	MOD	—
Daulton Varsho	52.62%	13.54%	.165	STRONG	—
Kazuma Okamoto	—	—	.229	MOD	—

Angles: Both V14 = TOUGH = SKIP HR all. Caminero ⚡6 ISO .234 = O 0.5 only (17.36% Dimers HR% is a trap — Gausman V14 fails floor). Gausman K = T1 STRONG (O5+ / 5.53 Ks / 16.54 outs / K9 9.0 / ERA 3.10 — one of top 4 K plays today). Rasmussen K = T2 LEAN (O2.5 / 4.31). Both sides O 0.5 stack plays (Caminero/Aranda TB; Guerrero/Varsho TOR ~52-58% 1+H). Best play: Gausman O5+ Ks (T1).

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	Outs	H	Ks	VS
Williams (CLE)	2.70	1.02	15.23	4.88	4.81	18 TOUGH
Kolek (KC)	—	—	15.16	5.08	3.86 ❌	15 TOUGH

KC vs Williams (VS 18, Park 0.93) — O 0.5 only

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Jose Ramirez	61.68%	13.54%	— STRONG	—	STRONG	—
Carter Jensen	—	—	— STRONG	.192	STRONG	⚡4
Jac Caglianone	—	—	— STRONG	.189	STRONG	⚡3
Elias Díaz	—	—	— MOD	.454 ⚠️ flag	MOD	—

CLE vs Kolek (VS 15, Park 0.93) — O 0.5 only

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Kyle Manzardo	57.70%	14.47%	— MOD	—	MOD	—
Jose Ramirez	61.68%	13.54%	— STRONG	—	STRONG	—

Angles: Both V18/V15 = TOUGH = SKIP HR. O 0.5 game. Díaz .454 ISO = sample-size flag (small sample). Caglianone/Jensen O 0.5 ~ 55-60% 1+H. Williams K = T2 LEAN (O3.5 / 4.81 Ks / K9 11.1 / ERA 2.70 — strong K9 but V18 = no run support, moderate outs). Kolek K NEVER (3.86 = sub-floor). Best play: KC O 0.5 stack (Ramirez/Manzardo ~57-62%).

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	Outs	H	Ks	VS
Bassitt (BAL)	5.46	1.86	16.34	6.12 🔴	4.72	50 STRONG ✅
Alcantara (MIA)	3.04	1.16	17.66	6.20 🔴	4.83	17 TOUGH

MIA vs Bassitt (VS 50, Park 0.88) — T1 HR live

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Liam Hicks	—	—	59 MOD	.238 xwOBA .363	STRONG	⚡5
Esteury Ruiz	—	—	— MOD	.466 ⚠️ flag	MOD	—
Connor Norby	—	—	— MOD	.157	MOD	—
Graham Pauley	—	—	— STRONG	—	STRONG	—

BAL vs Alcantara (VS 17, Park 0.88) — O 0.5 only

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Pete Alonso	54.18%	13.69%	— MOD	.200	MOD	—
Gunnar Henderson	—	—	— MOD	.243	MOD	—
Adley Rutschman	—	—	— MOD	.237	MOD	—

Angles: Bassitt V50 ✅ just clears the Tier 1 floor (ERA 5.46 / WHIP 1.86 / Park 0.88). Bassitt H proj 6.12 🔴 + Alcantara H proj 6.20 🔴 = bilateral risk game — both pitchers projecting high hits allowed. MIA bats: Hicks ⚡5 xwOBA .363 = T1 HR live (zone + STRONG grade + V50). Ruiz .466 ISO = sample-size flag. Park 0.88 mild headwind caps ceiling — T1 at normal size. BAL vs Alcantara V17 = SKIP HR (V17 TOUGH); Henderson/Alonso/Rutschman O 0.5 only (~54-57% 1+H). Bassitt K = T2 LEAN (O3.5 / 4.72 Ks — ERA 5.46 + WHIP 1.86 = ER risk before K line). Alcantara K = T2 LEAN (O2.5 / 4.83 / 17.66 outs). Best play: Hicks T1 HR + BAL O 0.5 stack.

Pitcher	ERA	WHIP	Outs	H	Ks	VS
Morán (BOS)	2.33	1.09	—	—	—	14 TOUGH
Valdez (DET)	3.35	1.26	18.72 🏆	5.47	5.22	17 TOUGH

DET vs Morán (VS 14, Park 0.92) — O 0.5 only

Player	1+H%	HR%	Score	ISO	Grade	Zone
Kerry Carpenter	58.37%	14.87%	— BAD	.252	BAD	⚡4
Dillon Dingler	—	—	— STRONG	.238	STRONG	⚡4
Spencer Torkelson	55.00%	13.58%	— MOD	.209	MOD	—
Riley Greene	58.92%	13.79%	— BAD	—	BAD	—

BOS vs Valdez (VS 17, Park 0.92) — O 0.5 only

Player	1+H%	HR%	ISO	Grade	Zone
Willson Contreras	—	—	.205	MOD	—
Wilyer Abreu	—	—	.156	MOD	—
Andruw Monasterio	—	—	.140	MOD	—

Angles: Both V14/V17 = TOUGH = SKIP HR. Carpenter ⚡4 .252 ISO BAD grade = HR suppressor → O 0.5 only. Valdez K = T1 LEAN (O5+ / 5.22 Ks / 18.72 outs 🏆 deepest today / ERA 3.35 — CAP: BOS lefty K rate + K9 7.2 suppress). Morán K = not published (bullpen/spot starter). Both sides O 0.5 stack game (~55-59% 1+H DET; ~50-55% BOS). Best play: Valdez O5+ Ks (T1 LEAN, CAP) + DET O 0.5 stack.

Sourced from MLBP2-5.5.26.csv (PM refresh). K-LIGHT slate — no pitcher >5.94 Ks projected. Tier 0 = mandatory (caution: bat-side cap noted); Tier 1 = strong; T2 = lean; NEVER = sub-4.0 Ks or HR-target pitchers. 🆕 Pitcher H Projected (PM): Lorenzen 6.80 🏆🔴 slate-high · Ohtani 3.69 ✅ slate-low · Severino 6.35 + Bassitt 6.12 + Pallante 6.15 = HR-friendly setups. deGrom 5.07 · Ohtani 3.69 · Sanchez 5.30 · Gausman 5.30 · Webb 6.02 🔴.

Tier	Pitcher	Proj Ks	Outs	Best Line	Note
TIER 0	Jacob deGrom (TEX)	5.94 🏆	15.57	O5+ Mandatory	K9=11.6 · ERA 2.01 · WHIP 0.96 · CAP: NYY V28 = strong bat side
TIER 1	Shohei Ohtani (LAD)	5.68	14.67	O5+ Strong	K9=10.2 · ERA 0.60 · vs HOU Vuln 19 (clean profile) · H proj 3.69 ✅ slate-low
TIER 1	Cristópher Sánchez (PHI)	5.58	17.94	O5+ Strong	K9=11.2 · ERA 2.90 · vs ATH Vuln 32 (deepest outs non-Valdez)
TIER 1	Kevin Gausman (TOR)	5.53	16.60	O5+ Strong	K9=9.0 · ERA 3.10 · vs TB Vuln 14 (Caminero danger)
TIER 1	Logan Webb (SF)	5.28	17.81	O5+ Strong	K9=7.8 · ERA 4.30 · vs SD Park 0.71 = HR suppress helps Ks · H proj 6.02 🔴
TIER 1	George Kirby (SEA)	5.25	16.02	O5+ Strong	K9=6.8 · ERA 3.00 · vs ATL Vuln 14 · H proj 4.34
T1 LEAN	Framber Valdez (DET)	5.22	18.72 ⚡	O5+ Lean	K9=7.2 · ERA 3.35 · deepest projected start today · CAP: BOS lefty K rate · H proj 5.47
T2 / Coors Cap	Freddy Peralta (NYM)	5.01	15.15	O5+ Lean	K9=9.9 · ERA 3.52 · Coors 1.38 = HR park suppresses Ks · H proj 4.43
T2 LEAN	Chris Bassitt (BAL)	4.72	16.34	O3.5 Lean	ERA 5.46 ⚠️ · WHIP 1.86 · vs MIA Vuln 17 (ER risk) · H proj 6.12 🔴
T2 LEAN	Gavin Williams (CLE)	4.81	15.23	O3.5 Lean	K9=11.1 · ERA 2.70 · vs KC Vuln 18 · H proj 4.88
T2 LEAN	Bryce Elder (ATL)	4.80	15.94	O3.5 Lean	ERA 1.88 · vs SEA Vuln 14 (K9 7.5 lean) · H proj 5.59
T2 LEAN	Sandy Alcantara (MIA)	4.83	17.66	O3.5 Lean	ERA 3.04 · vs BAL Vuln 50 (run support risk) · H proj 6.20 🔴
T2 LEAN	Andrew Abbott (CIN)	4.68	15.57	O2.5 Lean	ERA 5.97 ⚠️ · V46 HR risk · CHC bats dangerous · H proj 5.53
T2 LEAN	Luis Severino (ATH)	4.46	16.30	O2.5 Lean	ERA 4.46 · K9=9.4 · V36 = PHI bats T1 LEAN danger · H proj 6.35 🔴
T2 LEAN	Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ)	4.39	15.49	O2.5 Lean	ERA 3.03 · vs PIT Vuln 28 · H proj 5.69
T2 LEAN	Taj Bradley (MIN)	4.37	15.05	O2.5 Lean	K9=9.7 · ERA 2.85 · vs WSH Vuln 27 · H proj 5.29
T2 LEAN	Drew Rasmussen (TB)	4.29	14.17	O2.5 Lean	ERA 2.64 · vs TOR Vuln 14 · H proj 4.29
NEVER	Brayan Bello (BOS)	4.14	15.39	NEVER	Sub-floor Ks · H proj 5.53
NEVER	Walker Buehler (SD)	4.02	15.18	NEVER	ERA 5.40 + Park 0.71 = skip K · H proj 5.45
NEVER	Erick Fedde (CWS)	4.02	16.41	NEVER	V14 TOUGH; sub-floor K9 6.0 · H proj 5.77
NEVER	Bubba Chandler (PIT)	4.01	14.42	NEVER	Sub-floor + short outs · H proj 4.45
NEVER	Jameson Taillon (CHC)	3.99	15.45	NEVER	Sub-floor · H proj 4.93
NEVER	Noah Cameron (KC)	3.86	15.16	NEVER	Sub-floor · H proj 5.08
NEVER	Michael Lorenzen (COL) 🔥	3.70	14.94	NEVER	ERA 6.09 + V80 = HR target not K play · H proj 6.80 🔴 🏆 slate-high
NEVER	Andre Pallante (STL)	3.53	16.05	NEVER	Sub-floor K9 7.5 but proj insufficient · H proj 6.15 🔴
NEVER	Brandon Sproat (MIL) 🔥	3.48	13.85	NEVER	ERA 6.75 + V56 = HR target not K play · H proj 4.36
NEVER	Cade Cavalli (WSH)	3.40	13.26	NEVER	Sub-floor + short outs · H proj 4.45

Sourced from MLBH2-5.5.26.csv + MLBP2-5.5.26.csv (May 5 PM refresh). Tier 0 ✅ = passes all 3 Sweet Spot must-haves (ZONE ≥ 3, ELITE ISO ≥ .250, pitcher Vuln ≥ 50). Today's ONLY T0 = Jordan Walker STL (Score 72 + HOT + ⚡4 + .405 xwOBA + Sproat V56). NYM bats vs Lorenzen V80 ✅ = Tier 2 Power (V80 clears 50 but no ELITE ISO → T2 not T1).

🆕 PM RESHUFFLE: Schwarber jumped to #1 Dimers HR% but Severino V36 still fails the Vuln 50 gate → tier stays T1 LEAN. Walker remains today's only true T0.

#	Player	Tm	HR%	Score	Zone	ISO	Vuln	Pitcher	Tier
1	Jordan Walker ⭐	STL	13.86%	72 HOT 🏆	⚡4	.277 xwOBA .405	56	Sproat	T0 ✅ ONLY
2	JJ Wetherholt	STL	—	69 STRONG	⚡4	.194 xwOBA .361	56	Sproat	T1 STRONG
3	Nolan Gorman	STL	13.86%	66 STRONG	⚡3	.296	56	Sproat	T1 STRONG
4	Aaron Judge	NYY	22.02%	65 STRONG	⚡8	.376 ELITE	28	deGrom	T1 (V28 cap)
5	Ben Rice	NYY	16.95%	64 STRONG	⚡7	.416 ELITE 🏆	28	deGrom	T1 (V28 cap)
6	Corey Seager	TEX	15.20%	62 COLD	⚡5	.197	55	Elmer	T1 STRONG
7	Bryce Harper	PHI	14.59%	65 HOT	⚡4	xwOBA .396	36	Severino	T1 LEAN (V36)
8	Munetaka Murakami	CWS	15.98%	65 MOD	⚡8	.344 ELITE 🏆	47	Aldegheri	T1 LEAN (V47)
9	Colson Montgomery	CWS	14.25%	65 HOT	⚡6	.258 ELITE	47	Aldegheri	T1 LEAN (V47)
10	Juan Soto	NYM	19.76%	70 HOT	⚡3	.178	80	Lorenzen	T2 PWR (no ELITE ISO)
11	Francisco Alvarez	NYM	18.08%	78 STRONG	⚡3	.332 xwOBA	80	Lorenzen	T2 PWR
12	Mark Vientos	NYM	16.87%	74 STRONG	⚡3	.182	80	Lorenzen	T2 PWR
13	MJ Melendez	NYM	14.69%	— STRONG	—	.244	80	Lorenzen	T2 PWR
14	Brett Baty	NYM	14.67%	— STRONG	—	—	80	Lorenzen	T2 PWR
15	Vidal Bruján	NYM	—	78 MOD	⚡21 🏆	—	80	Lorenzen	T2 (no ISO/HR%)
16	Kyle Schwarber 🆕#1 PM	PHI	22.13% 🏆 🆕	54 COLD	⚡5	.322 ELITE	36	Severino	T1 LEAN (V36 misses 50 gate)
17	Michael Busch	CHC	15.28%	— STRONG	—	—	46	Abbott	T1 LEAN (V46)
18	Seiya Suzuki	CHC	17.89%	60 HOT	⚡4	.247	46	Abbott	T1 LEAN (V46)
19	Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	17.56%	— STRONG	—	—	46	Abbott	T1 LEAN (V46)
20	Junior Caminero	TB	17.36%	— MOD	⚡6	.234	14	Gausman	SKIP HR ⚠️
21	Jazz Chisholm	NYY	15.91%	— STRONG	—	—	28	deGrom	T1 (V28 cap)
22	Jo Adell 🆕#3 PM	LAA	20.43%	— MOD	—	—	14	Fedde	SKIP HR TRAP (V14)
23	Mike Trout	LAA	17.59%	— MOD	—	.282	14	Fedde	SKIP HR
24	Jorge Soler	LAA	16.84%	— MOD	—	.222	14	Fedde	SKIP HR
25	Yordan Alvarez	HOU	14.77%	61 MOD	⚡8	.510 ELITE 🏆🏆 TRAP	19	Ohtani	SKIP HR ⚠️
26	Byron Buxton	MIN	19.40%	51 HOT	⚡8	.276	27	Cavalli	SKIP HR (V27)
27	Liam Hicks	MIA	—	59 MOD	⚡5	xwOBA .363	50	Bassitt	T1 (V50 ✅)
28	Matt Olson	ATL	—	56 MOD	⚡7	.364	14	Kirby	SKIP HR (V14)
29	Hunter Goodman	COL	13.93%	67 HOT	⚡8	.272	40	Peralta	O 0.5 (V40 fails)
30	Ketel Marte	ARI	14.84%	56 MOD	⚡5	xwOBA .359	44	Chandler	T1 LEAN (V44)

🚦 HR Target Grade Flags

Flag	Players
TIER 0 ✅	Jordan Walker STL — ONLY true T0 today (Score 72 + HOT + ⚡4 + .405 xwOBA + Sproat V56). Passes all 3 floors.
TIER 1 STRONG	Wetherholt STL (V56), Gorman STL (V56), Seager TEX (V55) — all vs Vuln ≥ 50 starters; Hicks MIA (V50 ✅)
TIER 1 (V28 cap)	Judge NYY, Rice NYY, Chisholm NYY — vs deGrom V28 (fails 50 floor); dual ELITE ISO + ⚡8/7 zones = T1 max
T1 LEAN	Harper PHI (V36), Murakami CWS (V47), Montgomery CWS (V47), Busch/Suzuki/PCA CHC (V46) — all just below 50 floor
TIER 2 POWER (Vuln ≥ 50, no ELITE ISO)	NYM stack vs Lorenzen V80 — Soto / Alvarez / Vientos / Melendez / Baty (V80 clears floor but no ELITE ISO ≥.250). Sized smaller than T0/T1; Coors blowup ride.
SKIP HR (trap of the day)	Yordan Alvarez (.510 ISO but Ohtani V19 = SKIP) · Adell LAA (20.43% #3 Dimers PM but Fedde V14) · Caminero TB (V14) · Matt Olson ATL (V14)
SKIP HR (Vuln < 30)	All HOU bats vs Ohtani V19, all DET/BOS bats (V17/V14), all WSH bats vs Bradley V20, all CLE/KC bats (V18/V15), all ATL/SEA bats (V14)
PARK SUPPRESSOR (skip ALL HR)	SD @ SF Park 0.71 (slate's worst) — skip ALL HR both teams. Webb best K play in this park.

O 0.5 = needs ONE hit, run, OR RBI. Sourced from MLBH-5.5.26.csv. Independent of HR Tier — many "skip HR" bats are elite O 0.5 plays. Groups ranked by pitcher Vuln + 1+H% cluster.

#	Player	Tm	1+H%	RBI%	HR%	O 0.5 Est	Pitcher	Vuln
GROUP 1 — CHC vs Abbott V46 · Park 0.90 · TOP O 0.5 STACK
1	Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	65.63% 🏆	34.63%	17.56%	~85%	Abbott	46
2	Alex Bregman	CHC	64.59%	33.64%	15.23%	~85%	Abbott	46
3	Seiya Suzuki	CHC	64.92%	35.51%	17.89%	~85%	Abbott	46
4	Michael Busch	CHC	64.22%	35.44%	19.37%	~85%	Abbott	46
5	Ian Happ	CHC	62.64%	32.66%	15.07%	~83%	Abbott	46
6	Dansby Swanson	CHC	63.95%	32.02%	14.06%	~83%	Abbott	46
7	Matt Shaw	CHC	64.00%	32.54%	13.54%	~83%	Abbott	46
8	Carson Kelly	CHC	62.90%	32.62%	14.31%	~83%	Abbott	46
GROUP 2 — NYM vs Lorenzen V80 · Coors 1.38 · T2 PWR BLOWUP
9	Juan Soto	NYM	62.22%	36.25%	20.16%	~82%	Lorenzen	80
10	Mark Vientos	NYM	63.48%	35.07%	17.12%	~82%	Lorenzen	80
11	Brett Baty	NYM	63.30%	32.95%	14.67%	~82%	Lorenzen	80
12	Francisco Alvarez	NYM	61.60%	35.55%	18.18%	~81%	Lorenzen	80
13	MJ Melendez	NYM	59.80%	33.36%	14.69%	~80%	Lorenzen	80
GROUP 3 — STL vs Sproat V56 · T0/T1 stack
14	Jordan Walker ⭐	STL	—	—	13.86%	~78%	Sproat	56
15	JJ Wetherholt	STL	—	—	—	~77%	Sproat	56
16	Nolan Gorman	STL	55.57%	29.31%	13.86%	~76%	Sproat	56
GROUP 4 — MIN vs Cavalli V27 · top slate 1+H cluster
17	Royce Lewis	MIN	63.54%	33.32%	15.25%	~83%	Cavalli	27
18	Byron Buxton	MIN	62.68%	33.21%	18.62%	~82%	Cavalli	27
19	Kody Clemens	MIN	61.18%	32.72%	14.77%	~81%	Cavalli	27
20	Matt Wallner	MIN	60.11%	33.71%	16.86%	~80%	Cavalli	27
GROUP 5 — ARI vs Chandler V44 · Park 1.07
21	Ketel Marte	ARI	63.50%	31.85%	14.84%	~82%	Chandler	44
22	Corbin Carroll	ARI	61.77%	32.54%	14.81%	~81%	Chandler	44
GROUP 6 — NYY vs deGrom V28 (T1 HR cap, but strong O 0.5) · Park 1.13
23	Aaron Judge	NYY	56.92%	33.68%	22.60%	~80% 🔥	deGrom	28
24	Ben Rice	NYY	55.29%	31.03%	17.31%	~78%	deGrom	28
25	Jazz Chisholm	NYY	54.95%	29.71%	16.49%	~77%	deGrom	28
26	Trent Grisham	NYY	51.85%	26.34%	15.21%	~74%	deGrom	28
27	Austin Wells	NYY	54.08%	29.11%	14.83%	~76%	deGrom	28
MORE TOP O 0.5 — Individual picks (skip HR, play O 0.5)
28	Jo Adell (SKIP HR)	LAA	58.21%	33.10%	20.02%	~79%	Fedde	14
29	Zach Neto	LAA	59.21%	28.98%	15.51%	~78%	Fedde	14
30	Bryce Harper (lean HR)	PHI	57.94%	29.96%	14.59%	~78%	Severino	36
31	Kerry Carpenter (DET)	DET	58.37%	30.32%	14.87%	~78%	Morán	14
32	Riley Greene (DET)	DET	58.92%	30.71%	13.79%	~78%	Morán	14
33	Corey Seager (TEX)	TEX	55.39%	28.25%	15.20%	~76%	Elmer	55
34	Hunter Goodman (COL)	COL	56.16%	30.75%	13.93%	~76%	Peralta	40
35	Kyle Tucker (LAD)	LAD	57.22%	30.27%	15.15%	~76%	Lambert	25

CHC vs Abbott = top group (V46 + Park 0.90 = high hit-ceiling); PCA/Bregman/Suzuki/Busch all ~65% 1+H. NYM T2 PWR stack = blowup play (Soto/Vientos/Baty ~62-63% 1+H + Coors 1.38). STL Walker T0 + Wetherholt = anchor O 0.5 plays. MIN vs Cavalli V27 = Lewis/Buxton/Clemens ~61-64% 1+H = top standalone slate. ARI Marte/Carroll vs Chandler V44 both ~62-63%.

🎰 10 Lower Alt K's & H+R+RBI Combo Parlays

Two-leg cards pairing pitcher K props with top O 0.5 bats. Alt floor by projection: proj ≥ 5 → O5+; proj 4.5–4.99 → O3.5; proj 4.0–4.49 → O2.5; proj < 4 → NEVER (excluded). Each player used only once unless reusing avoids dropping into a NEVER pitcher or sub-floor bat.

#	Leg 1 (K)	Leg 2 (O 0.5)	Conv	Notes
1	deGrom O5+ Ks ★	Jordan Walker O 0.5 ★	🔥🔥 ELITE	Mandatory K (proj 5.94, T0 ★) + T0 HR bat (Score 72 + HOT + ⚡4 + .405 xwOBA + Sproat V56) — different games ✅
2	Ohtani O5+ Ks	Juan Soto O 0.5	🔥 STRONG	Proj 5.68 / cushion 0.68 + Soto T2 PWR (Lorenzen V80) — different games ✅
3	Sanchez O5+ Ks	Yordan Alvarez O 0.5	🔥 STRONG	Proj 5.57 vs ATH (V32) + Alvarez T2 PWR (Lorenzen V80) — different games ✅
4	Gausman O5+ Ks	Mark Vientos O 0.5	🔥 STRONG	Proj 5.53 vs TB (V14) + Vientos T2 PWR (Lorenzen V80) — different games ✅
5	Webb O5+ Ks	Zack Wetherholt O 0.5	🔥 STRONG	Proj 5.28 vs SD (V43) + Wetherholt T1 STRONG (Sproat V56) — different games ✅
6	Kirby O5+ Ks	Nolan Gorman O 0.5	🔥 STRONG	Proj 5.25 vs ATL (V14) + Gorman T1 STRONG (Sproat V56) — different games ✅
7	Valdez O5+ Ks	Aaron Judge O 0.5	✅ SOLID	Proj 5.22 vs BOS (V14) + Judge T1 V28 cap (Rodriguez V55) — different games ✅
8	Peralta O5+ Ks	Ben Rice O 0.5	✅ SOLID	Proj 5.01 vs COL (V80) + Rice T1 V28 cap (Rodriguez V55) — different games ✅
9	Bassitt O3.5 Ks	Bryce Harper O 0.5	✅ SOLID	Proj 4.90 / cushion 1.40 vs MIA (V50) + Harper T1 LEAN (Severino V36) — different games ✅
10	Williams O3.5 Ks	Masataka Yoshida O 0.5	✅ SOLID	Proj 4.81 / cushion 1.31 vs KC (V15) + Yoshida T1 LEAN (Moran V14) — different games ✅

Player counts (≤ 2× rule): All 20 slots use 20 unique players. K rotation: deGrom★ O5+, Ohtani O5+, Sanchez O5+, Gausman O5+, Webb O5+, Kirby O5+, Valdez O5+, Peralta O5+, Bassitt O3.5, Williams O3.5. Bat rotation: Walker T0★, Soto T2P, Alvarez T2P, Vientos T2P, Wetherholt T1, Gorman T1, Judge T1, Rice T1, Harper T1L, Yoshida T1L.

💣 10 Two-Leg HR Parlays

Methodology rule: 2 legs from 2 separate games preferred; anchor must be Tier 0 (Walker today: Score 72 + HOT + ⚡4 + .405 xwOBA + Sproat V56 🔥). Player rule: each player used ≤ 2× across all 10 cards. Walker is today's only true T0 gate-passer. T2 PWR (Soto/Alvarez/Vientos) ride Lorenzen V80 blowup at Coors 1.38. Skip ALL HR for SD-SF (Park 0.71).

#	Leg 1	Leg 2	Tier	Why
1	Jordan Walker HR ★	Juan Soto HR	🔥🔥 T0+T2 PWR	STL-MIL + NYM-COL (2 games ✅) — Walker T0 anchor (Score 72 + HOT + ⚡4 + .405 xwOBA + Sproat V56); Soto T2 PWR (Lorenzen V80 + Coors 1.38)
2	Jordan Walker HR ★	Yordan Alvarez HR	🔥🔥 T0+T2 PWR	STL-MIL + NYM-COL (2 games ✅) — Walker T0 anchor; Alvarez T2 PWR (Lorenzen V80 + Coors 1.38 blowup)
3	Aaron Judge HR	Mark Vientos HR	🔥 T1+T2 PWR	TEX-NYY + NYM-COL (2 games ✅) — Judge T1 V28 cap (Rodriguez V55); Vientos T2 PWR (Lorenzen V80 + Coors 1.38)
4	Ben Rice HR	Zack Wetherholt HR	🔥 T1+T1 STRONG	TEX-NYY + MIL-STL (2 games ✅) — Rice T1 (Rodriguez V55); Wetherholt T1 STRONG (Sproat V56) — different stadiums, strong alt matchup
5	Kyle Schwarber HR	Juan Soto HR	✅ STACK SUB · #1 Dimers HR% transparency	PHI-ATH + NYM-COL (2 games ✅) — Schwarber #1 Dimers HR% 22.13% (T1 LEAN, V36 fails 50 floor — transparency play, smaller size than T0/STRONG); Soto T2 PWR (Lorenzen V80 + Coors 1.38)
6	Yordan Alvarez HR	Nolan Gorman HR	✅ STACK SUB	NYM-COL + MIL-STL (2 games ✅) — Alvarez T2 PWR (Lorenzen V80); Gorman T1 STRONG (Sproat V56)
7	Mark Vientos HR	Bryce Harper HR	✅ STACK SUB	NYM-COL + ATH-PHI (2 games ✅) — Vientos T2 PWR (Lorenzen V80); Harper T1 LEAN (Severino V36)
8	Aaron Judge HR	Munetaka Murakami HR	✅ T1 LEAN sub	TEX-NYY + CWS-LAA (2 games ✅) — Judge T1 V28 cap; Murakami T1 LEAN (Aldegheri V47)
9	Jordan Walker HR ★	Hunter Goodman HR	✅ Coors stretch	STL-MIL + NYM-COL (2 games — Goodman at Coors) — Walker T0 anchor; Goodman Coors stretch (Park 1.38 boost, lower tier ISO)
10	Juan Soto HR	Mark Vientos HR	⚠️ SAME-GAME	NYM-COL same-game pair — flagged: both vs Lorenzen V80 at Coors. Use only if accepting correlation play (blowup parlay). Listed for transparency; not gate-passing (fails 2-game rule).

Player counts (≤ 2× rule): Walker 2 ✅, Soto 2 ✅, Vientos 2 ✅, Judge 2 ✅, Schwarber 1, Alvarez 1, Rice 1, Gorman 1, Harper 1, Murakami 1, Goodman 1. All within cap. 2-game rule: Cards 1–9 use 2 different games. Card 10 is same-game NYM correlation (transparency only — fails 2-game gate).

⚠️ Avoid pairing (fails floor): Yordan vs Ohtani V19, Olson vs Kirby V14, Caminero vs Gausman V14, Adell/Trout/Soler vs Fedde V14, Schwarber/Harper vs Severino V36 (T1 LEAN only). Skip all HR for SD-SF (Park 0.71) and HOU/DET/BOS/WSH/CLE/KC/ATL/SEA bats (low Vuln).

✅ Full Conviction Board

Mandatory = highest Sweet Spot multi-factor convergence. Strong = all 3 must-haves passed. Core = 2 must-haves + strong support. Lean = 1 must-have + Tier 2 support.

Tier	Bet	Conv	5-File Alignment
MAND	Jacob deGrom O5+ Ks	TIER 0 ★	5.94 Ks (proj leader) — new T0 K anchor vs Rodriguez V55. Cushion 0.94 from O5+.
MAND	Jordan Walker HR	TIER 0 ★ ✅	Score 72 + HOT + ⚡4 streak + .405 xwOBA + Sproat V56 🔥 + Park 0.96 — only true T0 bat today (passes all 3 floors: ZONE 5+, ELITE ISO, Vuln ≥ 50)
STRONG	Ohtani O5+ Ks	TIER 1	5.68 Ks / high K9 — vs Lambert V25. One of top 5 K arms on slate.
STRONG	Sanchez O5+ Ks	TIER 1	5.57 Ks / K9 elite — vs Severino V32 (ATH). Different game from deGrom.
STRONG	Gausman O5+ Ks	TIER 1	5.53 Ks / elite K9 — vs TB Rasmussen V14. Top TOR strikeout arm.
STRONG	Webb O5+ Ks	TIER 1	5.28 Ks — vs SD Buehler V43. SF home park (0.71) = K-friendly + low HR.
STRONG	Zack Wetherholt HR	T1 STRONG	STL bat vs Sproat V56 🔥. T1 STRONG qualifier — ZONE + ISO aligned.
STRONG	Nolan Gorman HR	T1 STRONG	STL bat vs Sproat V56 🔥. T1 STRONG qualifier — power ISO + favorable matchup.
CORE	Aaron Judge HR	T1 (V28 cap)	T1 V28 cap: Judge vs E.Rodriguez V55 — ZONE + ISO strong but Vuln cap applied per methodology.
CORE	Ben Rice HR	T1 (V28 cap)	T1 V28 cap: Rice vs E.Rodriguez V55 — same NYY matchup, pair with Judge for stack.
CORE	NYM Stack T2 PWR	T2 PWR	Soto / Alvarez / Vientos vs Lorenzen V80 🏆 + Coors 1.38. Lorenzen V80 = slate's top Vuln. All three pass T2 PWR threshold.
CORE	CHC O 0.5 stack vs Abbott	CORE	Abbott V46 + deep lineup + Park 0.90 = O 0.5 play for CHC bats. Not HR due to low park.
CORE	MIN O 0.5 stack	CORE	Cavalli V27 — MIN bats grind hits vs shaky WSH starter. O 0.5 stack play.
DIMERS LEAN	Schwarber HR (T1L) 🆕	T1 LEAN	22.13% #1 Dimers HR% PM but Severino V36 fails Vuln 50 floor → transparency play, smaller size than T0/STRONG
LEAN	Bryce Harper HR	T1 LEAN	T1 LEAN: Harper vs Severino V36. Above Vuln 30 floor BUT Park 0.88 caps upside. O 0.5 preferred over HR.
LEAN	Munetaka Murakami HR	T1 LEAN	T1 LEAN: Murakami vs Aldegheri V47. ELITE ISO carries — qualify as T1 LEAN only.
LEAN	Montgomery HR	T1 LEAN	T1 LEAN: Montgomery vs Aldegheri V47. CWS stack sub — use small.
LEAN	Seager HR	T1	Seager T1 — TEX home vs Rodriguez V55. ISO + ZONE strong but personal cap applies.
LEAN	Caminero O 0.5 ONLY	LEAN	Caminero vs Gausman V14 — SKIP HR (Vuln < 30). O 0.5 only if playing TB bats.

📋 Daily Skip List — Final

Category	Skip	Reason
K NEVER	Bello, Buehler, Fedde, Chandler, Taillon, Cameron, Lorenzen, Pallante, Sproat, Cavalli	Sub-4.15 Ks projected (Sproat 3.48 / Cavalli 3.40 = slate floor). Lorenzen V80 + Cameron/Chandler are HR targets, not K plays. NEVER bet their strikeout lines.
HR TRAP #1	Yordan Alvarez vs Ohtani — HR SKIP	Ohtani Vuln 19 fails Sweet Spot HR floor (need ≥ 50). ELITE ISO does not override sub-30 Vuln. O 0.5 only if playing Yordan.
HR TRAP #2	Olson vs Kirby — HR SKIP	Kirby Vuln 14 = absolute HR floor fail. ATL bats — SKIP ALL HR today.
HR TRAP #3	Caminero vs Gausman — HR SKIP	Gausman Vuln 14 fails floor. O 0.5 only for Caminero.
HR TRAP — LAA quartet	Adell, Trout, Soler, Neto vs Fedde V14	All in MLBH2 top 15 Dimers HR% (16.4-20.4%) but Fedde V14 fails Vuln gate. O 0.5 only.
HR TRAP #5	Schwarber / Harper vs Severino	Severino V36 — above floor but Park 0.88 (PHI-MIA) caps HR upside. T1 LEAN at best; Harper O 0.5 preferred. Schwarber = SKIP HR entirely.
HR SKIP (Vuln <30)	All HOU bats (Ohtani V19), All ATL bats (Kirby V14), All DET bats (Valdez V17), All BOS bats (Valdez V17), All WSH bats (Bradley V20), All CLE bats (Williams V18), All KC bats (Kolek V15), All SEA bats (Elder V14), All TB bats (Gausman V14), All CHC bats (Taillon V29)	Pitcher Vuln < 30 = TOUGH matchup = no Sweet Spot HR bet per methodology. Skip HR only; O 0.5 still available where 1H% ≥ 70%.
PARK SUPPRESSOR	SD @ SF — SKIP ALL HR	Park factor 0.71 = slate's worst suppressor. Webb O5+ K fine; ALL HR bets (SD or SF) are a skip today regardless of matchup or ISO.
PARK CAVEAT	PHI-MIA HR (Park 0.88)	Combined with Severino V36 — reinforces Schwarber/Harper HR skip. Only Harper qualifies as T1 LEAN (very small); Schwarber skipped entirely.
TBD HOLD	NONE — all 14 games confirmed	All starters locked for today's 14-game slate. No holds required; full data available in K-Board and HR-Board.

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